Armenia’s pro-western government has secured a decisive victory in Sunday’s parliamentary election, pushing back against longstanding pressure from Moscow. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party is set to retain power with 54 per cent of the vote, according to preliminary results from the Central Election Commission. The result is a clear rebuff to Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus region and a mandate for Pashinyan’s reform agenda.
The snap election was triggered by a political crisis last year, when opposition forces backed by Russia sought to oust Pashinyan after a ceasefire deal with Azerbaijan ended six weeks of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. Critics accused him of betraying national interests, but voters appeared to side with his argument that the peace deal saved Armenian lives and preserved key territory.
“We have the support of the people,” Pashinyan told supporters in Yerevan. “This is a victory for democracy and for our European path.”
Russia’s reaction has been swift. The Kremlin expressed disappointment, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying Moscow hoped Armenia would “continue to take into account Russian interests.” But Pashinyan has increasingly distanced himself from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which he accuses of failing to protect Armenia during the conflict.
For ordinary Armenians, the election result offers some relief but no immediate respite. The economy is struggling under the weight of the pandemic and the fallout from the war. Inflation is running at over 7 per cent, and the national currency has lost value. Many families are still grieving soldiers lost in the conflict, while thousands of internally displaced people live in temporary accommodation.
“I voted for Pashinyan because I believe in change,” said Anna Khachatryan, a 34-year-old shop assistant in Yerevan. “But life is hard. I earn just 100,000 drams a month — that’s about £170. Rent alone takes half of that. I hope the government will focus on jobs and prices now.”
The election result is likely to deepen Armenia’s isolation from Russia and the CSTO. But Pashinyan has already signalled a pivot towards the European Union and the United States. Last month, Armenia signed a joint declaration with the EU on economic cooperation, and Yerevan has sought closer ties with NATO.
Analysts say the West will now need to deliver tangible support. “Armenia is taking a significant risk by defying Russia,” said political analyst Boris Navasardyan. “If the West fails to provide meaningful economic and security guarantees, Pashinyan could face a backlash.”
Opposition parties, which boycotted the election, have called the result illegitimate, citing irregularities. But international observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the vote was “competitive and well-administered.”
The next test for Pashinyan will be the economy. He has promised to create jobs, boost wages and tackle corruption. But with a fractured parliament and a hostile Russia next door, delivering on those promises will be his most formidable challenge yet.
