Colombia heads to the polls today in an election that will determine not just its next leader, but the future of US relations across a hemisphere tired of Washington's heavy hand. Sources close to both campaigns confirm that the outcome will send shockwaves through the White House, where the spectre of a leftist government in Bogotá has kept strategists up at night.
For decades, US policy in Colombia has been written in ink mixed with blood and cocaine money. Plan Colombia turned the nation into a battlefield, with billions of US dollars fuelling a war that left more than 200,000 dead and millions displaced. Now, two candidates offer starkly different paths: right-wing populist Rodolfo Hernández, a property magnate who channels Trumpist rage against the elite, or leftist former guerrilla Gustavo Petro, who promises to break from the US-backed model and negotiate peace with armed groups.
But let's follow the money. US corporate interests have deep tentacles in Colombia's oil, coal, and gold sectors. Petro has threatened to halt new oil exploration and renegotiate mining contracts. Uncovered documents from the Colombian mining association reveal a frantic lobbying blitz in Washington to ensure a Hernández victory. If Petro wins, expect a flood of capital out of Bogotá and a showdown over extradition treaties that have long been Washington's favourite leverage.
The real story, however, is the role of the narcostate. Leaked intelligence reports seen by this newsroom show that drug trafficking groups have pumped millions into municipal campaigns across the country, hedging their bets on both candidates. Sources in the Colombian prosecutor's office confirm at least three active investigations into Hernández's 2016 campaign for ties to shady real estate deals that reeked of money laundering. Petro, meanwhile, has his own baggage: a former M-19 guerrilla with a past that includes allegations of ties to narco paramilitaries in the 1990s.
But what keeps US officials up at night isn't the rhetoric. It's the numbers. A Petro victory would give the left a string of wins in Latin America from Mexico to Argentina, forming a bloc that could challenge the Monroe Doctrine in its own backyard. The US State Department has quietly prepared contingency plans: trade restrictions, visa bans, and a freeze on military aid. But sources say the Colombian military, long a US client, is split. Some generals fear a Petro purge; others see an opportunity to escape the endless war.
Meanwhile, the streets tell a different story. In Medellín, where I stood last week, a woman clutching a photo of her disappeared son told me, "They call us a democracy, but the candidates are bought by the same mafia that killed my boy." She's not wrong. The election is a choice between two flawed men, but for millions of Colombians, it's a choice between a corrupt system that has failed them and an uncertain revolution.
Today's vote is a referendum on 20 years of US intervention. No matter who wins, the bodies will keep piling up. But if Petro prevails, the US will have to finally admit that its war on drugs haemorrhages winners and creates only losers. And if Hernández wins, prepare for more of the same: blood for oil, coca for cash, and a peace process in the dustbin.
This is not just Colombia's election. It's a line in the sand in Washington's backyard. And the world is watching.
