The balloon has gone up again in the Middle East. Israeli air strikes on southern Lebanon have killed at least 17 people, according to Lebanese officials. The strikes came in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli military base that wounded several soldiers.
The cycle of violence is accelerating. Downing Street is worried. Defence Secretary John Healey has issued a carefully worded statement calling for 'immediate de-escalation by all parties'.
Healey's team have been on the phone to Tel Aviv and Beirut. But the real question is: does anyone in Whitehall believe their pleas will be heard? The situation on the ground is deteriorating fast.
Hezbollah has fired hundreds of rockets into northern Israel this week. The IDF is retaliating hard. Casualties are mounting.
The Foreign Office is bracing for a wider conflict. One Whitehall source told me: 'We have seen this movie before. It never ends well.
' Downing Street is acutely aware of the political risks. An escalation could destabilise the region and drive another wave of migration towards Europe. That would be a nightmare for the government's border security agenda.
The Prime Minister's allies are privately urging a redoubling of diplomatic efforts. But cabinet hawks are pushing for a stronger condemnation of Hezbollah. The internal battle lines are forming.
The Defence Secretary's statement is a careful compromise. It avoids naming Hezbollah directly but calls on 'all parties' to step back. That will buy some time.
But not much. The next 48 hours are critical. If the strikes continue, the pressure on the government to take a tougher line will become irresistible.
The opposition is already sharpening its attacks. Shadow foreign secretary Andrew Mitchell will demand a Commons statement tomorrow. The government will have to show it has a plan.
Right now, it doesn't. This is a developing story. More to follow.
