The whispers are growing louder. A potential US-Iran deal is not just a diplomatic breakthrough; it’s a seismic shift for global oil markets and trade routes. And at the Treasury, they are watching every tick.
Sources close to Number 11 tell me that officials have been burning the midnight oil, modelling scenarios. The key variable? Oil prices. A deal could see Iranian barrels flood the market, sending crude south. That would be a gift for the Chancellor, easing inflation and giving him wriggle room in the autumn statement.
But there is a darker scenario. If the deal collapses, or if Iran uses the cash to fund proxies in the Gulf, we could see tanker tensions spike. The Treasury’s ‘worst case’ assumptions include a 20% spike in energy costs by November. That would be a disaster for the PM’s polling, already in the doldrums.
Westminster is already gaming the fallout. Tory backbenchers are split. The ‘Realist’ wing, led by those with business links, sees opportunity. New markets for British banks, if sanctions relief comes. The ‘Sceptic’ wing smells a trap. They fear Tehran will simply use the money to accelerate its nuclear timetable.
I spoke to a senior Whitehall source yesterday, off the record. Their verdict: “Hunt is preparing for both outcomes. But the glue on this deal is thin. One bad tweet from Tehran and it all unravels.”
The real action? It’s in the corridors of the IMF. UK negotiators are already lobbying behind the scenes, seeking guarantees that if sanctions are lifted, British firms get a slice of the pie. The Americans are playing hardball. Expect a summer of tense talks.
For now, the Treasury’s ‘war room’ is silent. But the screens are on. And everyone is waiting for the next leak.
