The Great Hall of the People in Beijing witnessed a carefully choreographed display of state power this week as President Xi Jinping hosted former US President Donald Trump with full diplomatic honours. For the attending British trade negotiators, the optics were a reminder of their own precarious position in a rapidly shifting global order.
The visit, ostensibly focused on bilateral trade and regional security, unfolded against a backdrop of data that underscores the physical reality of our changing planet. China's greenhouse gas emissions, which account for nearly 30% of the global total, remain a central sticking point in any meaningful climate agreement. This week, the Mauna Loa Observatory recorded atmospheric CO2 levels at 421 parts per million, a concentration not seen in over 3 million years. The implications are not abstract. They translate directly into thermal expansion of oceans, more frequent heatwaves, and a biosphere under stress.
Yet the discussions in Beijing gave little room for climate action. Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy and Xi's focus on domestic economic targets mean that energy transitions will likely be left to market forces rather than coordinated policy. The UK, having committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, finds itself negotiating trade deals with partners who question the pace of such transitions.
British negotiators, seated in a separate conference room relaying updates via secure channels, watched the proceedings with caution. The UK's post-Brexit trade strategy relies on securing agreements with both the US and China. But the juxtaposition of Xi's lavish reception for Trump and the UK's more measured welcome highlights the different weight these nations carry on the global stage.
From a scientific standpoint, the concept of "urgency" has a different meaning. The IPCC's latest synthesis report makes it clear: to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, global emissions must peak by 2025 and decline rapidly thereafter. Every year of delay locks in additional sea-level rise and ecosystem damage. The diplomatic pomp in Beijing does not alter the physics of the carbon cycle.
The technological solutions exist. Solar and wind power are now cheaper than fossil fuels in most markets. Battery storage costs have fallen 90% over the past decade. But deployment requires political will and capital. The United States and China together account for over 40% of global CO2 emissions. Without their cooperation, the Paris Agreement targets remain aspirational.
For the United Kingdom, a nation that industrialised early and has already reduced its emissions by 40% from 1990 levels, the challenge is to maintain influence while navigating between these two giants. The trade negotiators in Beijing will be looking for any sign of movement on climate technology transfer or joint declarations. But the body language from the main hall suggested that geopolitics, not geophysics, would dictate the agenda.
In the coming days, more details will emerge. But for now, the image of Xi and Trump shaking hands in a gilded hall serves as a snapshot of the current global impasse. The Earth continues to accumulate heat at a rate equivalent to five Hiroshima bombs per second. The diplomatic theatre in Beijing does nothing to cool it.
The responsibility, as always, lies with those who understand the data. Scientists continue to model scenarios; engineers continue to build renewables; activists continue to demand action. But the decisions are made in rooms like these. And the watchful eyes of British negotiators will be on the fine print of any joint statement.
In the end, energy transitions are not just about technology. They are about power, economics, and the willingness to acknowledge that the planet's climate system does not negotiate. The pomp and circumstance of state visits cannot mask the urgent need for a fundamental shift in how we fuel our civilisation. The only question is whether the leaders in that hall will act before the next CO2 reading pushes us further into uncharted territory.
