The World Health Organisation has issued a stark warning: the convergence of armed conflict and a fresh Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo could trigger a humanitarian and epidemiological catastrophe. As Science & Climate Correspondent, I must stress that this is not merely a political crisis. It is a physical reality governed by the laws of virology and human geography.
The current outbreak, declared in North Kivu province on 22 August, is the DRC’s 14th since the virus was first identified in 1976. But this one is different. It is unfolding in a region described by the WHO as a ‘war zone’. Armed groups operate with impunity, displacement camps swell with exhausted populations, and health workers face active threats. The basic reproductive number R0 of Ebola in a stable setting is around 1.5 to 2.0. In a conflict zone, that figure becomes meaningless. The effective reproductive number is driven not by biology but by violence, fear and mobility.
Consider the energy analogy. A pandemic is like a chemical reaction: propagation depends on contact rates and susceptible hosts. War does not change the virus, but it dramatically lowers the activation energy for transmission. Every roadblock, every attack on a clinic, every community that flees into the forest is a catalyst for spread. The WHO’s ‘catastrophic collision’ is a precise description of two high-energy systems coupling: a pathogen with a fatality rate of 50 to 90 per cent and a conflict that has already killed thousands and displaced over a million.
The DRC has become tragically adept at controlling Ebola. The 2018-2020 outbreak in the same region was contained using ring vaccination, community engagement and rigorous contact tracing. But that effort required security. Now, vaccinators cannot reach hotspots. Surveillance is blind in militia-controlled areas. Rumours about the virus are weaponised by warring factions. The virus exploits the gaps.
Climate science teaches us that complex systems tip when thresholds are crossed. Here, the threshold is the ability to deliver a vaccine within 72 hours of a confirmed case. If that chain breaks, the outbreak spreads exponentially. The WHO has approved the use of the Ervebo vaccine, but logistics are the bottleneck. The average temperature in North Kivu is 25°C. The vaccine must be stored at minus 70°C. Fuel for cold-chain generators is scarce. War burns the supply lines.
There is a parallel with biosphere collapse. Fragmentation of habitats accelerates species extinction. Fragmentation of health systems accelerates pathogen spread. The DRC is a biodiversity hotspot under siege from deforestation and mining. Now its human population is fragmented by conflict. The result is a perfect storm for zoonotic spillover and amplification.
The international community must understand the timescale. An uncontrolled Ebola outbreak in a conflict zone could seed cases in neighbouring countries Rwanda, Uganda and South Sudan, each with their own volatile regions. The 2014 West African epidemic began in a remote village and became a global emergency. That outbreak killed over 11,000 people. The DRC has the tools to stop this, but tools require hands to wield them. Those hands are under fire.
I am tired of repeating that prevention is cheaper than response. The cost of a single Ebola treatment unit in a war zone can exceed 10 million dollars. The cost of peacekeeping and primary healthcare is orders of magnitude less. But the physical reality is that we are now in a reactive mode. The question is not whether this will be a catastrophic collision, but how catastrophic. The WHO has called for a ceasefire. That is not a political statement. It is a virological necessity.
