The Met Office has confirmed it. El Niño is here. And Whitehall is rattled. The official declaration came at 10:00 AM. Sources say the Prime Minister was briefed at 7:00 AM. He did not look pleased.
This isn't just weather. This is a political time bomb. The last major El Niño was 2016. It cost the global economy billions. Britain felt it in the wallet. Supermarket shelves looked bare. Prices climbed. The tabloids screamed.
Now, the experts say this one could be worse. The World Meteorological Organisation is already using phrases like 'unprecedented heat stress on staple crops.' That's Whitehall code for 'we are about to be very unpopular.'
The real fear is the supply chain. British supermarkets rely on just-in-time delivery. They operate on a knife's edge. A bad harvest in Brazil. A drought in Australia. A flood in India. It all lands on a shelf in Sainsbury's. And that shelf gets emptier.
DEFRA sources tell me they have modelled three scenarios. All of them involve shortages. The worst case: wheat and rice imports drop by 15%. That means bread price hikes. That means headlines. That means a call to the Chancellor from a panicked minister.
But here is the real game. Climate politics. This El Niño will be weaponised. The usual suspects will blame the government. The government will blame the EU. The EU will blame fossil fuel companies. No one will be happy.
Inside the Cabinet, the mood is glum. The Environment Secretary is privately warning of disruption to Christmas turkeys. Yes, turkeys. Feed costs are rising. Farms are reducing flocks. And the Prime Minister has a Christmas Day photo op to think about.
Labour is circling. They smell blood. Expect shadow ministers to demand emergency food stockpiles. They will claim Britain is not prepared. And they have a point. The UK's food security index has slipped. The National Food Strategy was shelved. Now we are paying the price.
But here is the inside track. No one wants to talk about the real problem. The UK imports 50% of its food. That number hasn't changed in years. Every government talks about self-sufficiency. Nothing happens. This El Niño might force the issue. Or it might be forgotten until the next crisis.
Meanwhile, the Treasury is running the numbers. Food inflation is already high. Add another 3-5% and the Bank of England has a problem. Interest rates stay high. Mortgages hurt. Votes are lost. One senior Tory MP told me this morning: 'We are one food shortage away from a general election loss.'
The next few weeks are critical. The government will announce a resilience plan. Expect a lot of meaningless words. But the real decisions are being made in private. How much to spend. When to step in. Which farmers to bail out.
And then there is the knock-on effect. Developing nations will be hit harder. That means migration pressure. The Home Office is already bracing for more asylum claims. The military working group on climate change is meeting weekly. Things are serious.
For now, the message from Number 10 is calm. They want to avoid panic. But I have been around long enough to know when the mood changes. The corridors of power smell different. There is a tense undercurrent. El Niño is the backdrop. But the real story is the government's ability to cope. I am not betting on them.
