Addis Ababa has spoken. And the result is deafening. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has swept the polls, securing a landslide that will extend his iron grip on power. The official tally shows a comfortable majority, but the whispers in the Lobby tell a different story. This was a victory forged in the crucible of fear, not democratic fervour.
Let’s cut through the fog. The election was hardly ‘competitive.’ Opposition parties were banned. Journalists jailed. Internet blackouts were deployed like a blunt instrument. The result was never in doubt. What matters now is what happens next.
Whitehall is braced for the worst. Aid agencies are already drawing up contingency plans. The spectre of civil war looms large. Tigray, the northern region that has been the scene of a brutal conflict, remains a powder keg. The international community, including the UK, is watching with a nervous eye.
Sources within the Foreign Office tell me that the PM’s office is deeply concerned. They fear a new wave of violence could be triggered by the election result. The rhetoric from Addis Ababa has been belligerent. The rhetoric from Tigray’s leadership has been defiant. The two are on a collision course.
The key figure to watch is the Foreign Secretary. He has staked his reputation on a diplomatic solution. But diplomacy requires two willing parties. And one of them has just been handed a mandate for hardline action.
The UK’s aid budget to Ethiopia is already under pressure. A new crisis would stretch it to breaking point. The Treasury is watching the numbers. The aid agencies are watching the border. Everyone is waiting for the first shot.
Let’s not mince words. This is a dangerous moment. The election has provided cover for a government that is already accused of ethnic cleansing. It has given the green light for further crackdowns on dissent. The results are not a reflection of the will of the people. They are a reflection of the will of the state.
The backbenches are restless. Labour MPs are demanding a stronger response. The SNP is calling for an emergency debate. The Conservative Party is trying to find a middle ground, but the ground is shifting.
The real story here is not the election itself. It is the aftermath. It is the quiet anxiety in the corridors of power. It is the frantic planning for a crisis that may already be here.
So, what next? The PM’s priority will be to shore up his domestic support. That means appealing to the nationalist base. That means taking a hard line on Tigray. That means risking a wider war.
The UK’s role is limited but crucial. We are a significant donor. We have diplomatic influence. But we cannot want peace more than the warring parties. And right now, neither side seems interested in peace.
The election was a missed opportunity. It could have been a chance for reconciliation. Instead, it has been a chance for consolidation of power. The result is a victory for fear. And fear has a way of spreading.
The coming weeks will be pivotal. The aid agencies are ready. The diplomats are ready. The question is whether the politicians in Addis Ababa are ready to pull back from the brink. Don’t hold your breath.