The silence from Niamey is deafening. President Bazoum has not been seen in public for five days. Soldiers in sunglasses block the presidential palace. The mutineers of the Presidential Guard control the airwaves.
London, Paris, Washington. They all know what is at stake. Uranium. Migration routes. Jihadist threats. The Sahel is a tinderbox.
ECOWAS has called an emergency summit in Abuja. The bloc is rattled. Cotonou, Accra, Lagos: nervous capitals. They fear a domino effect.
The talk in the lobbies? A possible military intervention. But that is a fantasy. The regional army is overstretched. The politics are toxic.
Moscow is watching. Wagner mercenaries are embedded in Mali. They smell an opportunity. The Kremlin is silent. That is a bad sign.
Downing Street is briefing cautiously. Quiet calls to partners. No appetite for boots on the ground. Another failed state in the making. They know the cost.
The rebels have issued no demands. Just communiques. They say they want an end to 'mismanagement'. That is code for foreign influence. The usual playbook.
I am told the real game is inside the barracks. Loyalist units are being encircled. The airbase is still open. But for how long?
This is not a coup. It is a slow-motion collapse. The president is a prisoner. The constitution is suspended. International law is a paper shield.
Expect more of the same. Firmer statements. Sanctions threats. Bureaucratic fury. But no one will act. Not until the bodies pile up.
I have seen this before. Mali. Burkina Faso. Chad. The pattern is fixed. The West talks. The generals take. And democracy dies in the dust.
