There is a peculiar kind of whiplash that comes from watching American foreign policy under Donald Trump. One day, the rhetoric is fire and brimstone, the next, a sudden retreat. This week’s developments on Iran have left many wondering: is this a strategy of calculated chaos, or simply an administration that cannot decide what it wants?
Consider the past fortnight. First, the US authorised airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, a response to drone attacks on American forces. Then came the contradictory signals: talk of a nuclear deal, followed by fresh sanctions. All the while, the UK has held a steady line, supporting diplomatic engagement but backing its ally when necessary. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to the 2015 nuclear framework, even as Washington seems to be writing its own script.
What does this mean for ordinary people? For the Iranian diaspora in London, it is a source of anxiety. “We live between two worlds,” says Maryam, a 34-year-old teacher from Tehran. “Every time Trump tweets, my mother calls me in panic. She thinks war is coming.” Reports from the ground suggest that Iranian citizens are bracing for economic hardship as sanctions bite deeper. The rial has plummeted, and basic goods are becoming unaffordable.
But the cultural shift is more subtle. In the UK, the debate is as much about morality as strategy. The Labour Party has called for clearer parliamentary oversight, while Conservative MPs are divided between hawks and pragmatists. On the streets of Manchester, I spoke with a retired diplomat who summed it up: “We used to know where the US stood. Now we watch a president who changes his mind like the wind. It’s exhausting for allies and dangerous for the world.”
The social psychology here is fascinating. Trump’s approach creates a constant state of uncertainty, which research shows can lead to a kind of collective decision fatigue. For the White House, this might be deliberate: keep everyone guessing, including Tehran. But for the rest of us, it feels less like strategy and more like a high-stakes gamble with human lives.
As the UK maintains its firm stance, one cannot help but wonder how long that can last. We are witnessing a geopolitical real-time experiment in what happens when the world’s most powerful nation abandons predictability. The answer, so far, is a volatile mix of hope and fear.
