The official results are in. Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has secured a landslide with over 90% of seats. A mandate? Yes. But listen to the whispers in the Lobby. This is not a victory lap. It is a warning shot.
The election was neither free nor fair. Opposition leaders are in jail. Millions in Tigray couldn’t vote. The result has been rejected by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought a brutal war with Abiy’s forces last year. That conflict killed tens of thousands.
Now, the TPLF says it does not recognise the government. They are mobilising again. Backchannel sources tell me regional powers are arming both sides. Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki, a key Abiy ally, has forces stationed near the border. The US and UK have failed to negotiate a ceasefire.
The game is on. Whitehall is rattled. A senior UK diplomat told me: “We are looking at a looming humanitarian catastrophe. Famine is being used as a weapon.” The UK has pledged £90m in aid. But the question being asked in the corridors of Westminster: is it enough?
The Foreign Office is under pressure to impose sanctions on Ethiopian generals. So far, they have only announced visa bans. No asset freezes. Critics say it’s too little, too late. The shadow foreign secretary is calling for a parliamentary debate.
Let’s look at the numbers. Ethiopia’s economy is collapsing. Inflation is over 30%. The currency has crashed. Debt is unsustainable. The government has stopped publishing key economic data. The World Bank has paused disbursements.
Meanwhile, the opposition is fractured. The Oromo Liberation Front, allied to Abiy in 2018, has retreated to its base. Regional strongmen are building private armies. The Amhara region, once a government ally, is demanding its own state.
Here’s the inside baseball. Abiy is a survivor. He knows how to play the game. But his grip on power is slipping. The military is divided. Ethnic tensions are at an all-time high. The next move is anyone’s guess.
What does the UK do? The prime minister’s special envoy to the Horn of Africa is flying to Addis Ababa today. But the mood in the FCO is sombre. One official said: “We are out of leverage. The Chinese are building roads. The Turks are selling drones. We offer platitudes.”
The UN Security Council has failed to agree a resolution. Russia and China block action. The UK has tabled a draft, but it is weak. No mention of sanctions. Just words.
On the ground, the situation is dire. In Tigray, 400,000 people are in famine conditions. Aid convoys are being blocked. The internet is cut. Hospitals are out of medicine. The Ethiopian human rights commission says war crimes have been committed by both sides.
The British public has not noticed. Ukraine dominates the news cycle. But the Foreign Office knows. They are preparing for the worst: a full-blown civil war in Africa’s second most populous nation.
The game has changed. This is not 2018 when Abiy was the new broom. He is now one of the players. And the game is ruthless.