The St Petersburg International Economic Forum, once Putin’s showcase of Russian resilience, is now a stage for humiliation. Drone attacks have turned the city into a live-fire exercise. The Kremlin’s response? Bluster. They blame Ukraine. They blame NATO. But the real story is simpler: the war is coming home.
Sanctions tightening. The UK has just unveiled its toughest package yet. Asset freezes. Export bans. A new crackdown on oligarchs hiding wealth in London’s property market. The Treasury is playing hardball. Whitehall sources tell me this is only the beginning. The mood in Westminster is hawkish. Labour and Tories alike are competing to be toughest on Moscow.
Back at the forum, the optics are dreadful. Empty seats. Cancelled appearances. Western CEOs staying away. Even Chinese delegates look nervous. The drone attacks over the weekend are the real headline. St Petersburg is supposed to be safe. It is Putin’s hometown. If it can be struck, nowhere is safe. The narrative of Russian invincibility is shattered.
Polling data from independent Russian sources shows approval ratings ticking down. Not a collapse. Not yet. But the trend is clear. The war is becoming an economic deadweight. Inflation is biting. Sanctions are biting. The drone attacks are a psychological blow. The Kremlin needs a win. It is not getting one.
Cabinet factions in Westminster are watching closely. The Foreign Office wants to go further. The Treasury is cautious about collateral damage to European allies. But the momentum is with the hawks. The next round of sanctions will target energy revenues. A full embargo on Russian gas is being discussed. It is no longer unthinkable.
Backbench rebellions? Quiet for now. But the PM knows his majority is fragile. Any sign of weakness on Ukraine will be exploited. The opposition is circling. Starmer is positioning himself as Churchillian. The PM must not be outflanked.
On the ground in St Petersburg, the forum continues. Panels on ‘economic sovereignty’ and ‘import substitution’ sound hollow. The real business is happening in the corridors: oligarchs seeking safe havens, diplomats reading the tea leaves. One European ambassador told me, ‘This is the end of the beginning. The beginning of the end.’
For now, the shelling outside the city limits is a grim reminder. Russia is fighting a war it cannot win. The sanctions are tightening. The drones are buzzing. And the world is watching.
