A fragile truce has been struck between Tehran and Washington. In the small hours of Wednesday morning, negotiators in Vienna announced a framework for the re-entry of the United States into the 2015 nuclear accord, a deal which President Trump unilaterally abandoned three years ago. For the families in Manchester and Middlesbrough who fret about the price of petrol and the cost of a tank of heating oil, this may seem a distant affair. But this is a kitchen table issue too: when the Middle East shifts, the price of what we buy at the supermarket checkout often shudders in sympathy.
So what does each side get? For the United States, it is a path back to a deal that, whatever its flaws, kept Iran’s breakout time for a nuclear weapon at roughly a year. That gave the world, and American allies, a belt-and-braces reassurance. President Biden needed to de-escalate a crisis that was spinning out of control, with Iran enriching uranium at 60%, just a hair’s breadth from weapons grade. The deal lowers that to 3.67%, a tangible win. For Iran, the prize is the lifting of sanctions that had choked its oil exports and strangled its economy. Inflation was running at over 40% in 2020. The rial had collapsed. Ordinary Iranians, much like our own working families, saw the price of bread and chicken soar. The deal offers the regime a financial lifeline, freeing up tens of billions of dollars in frozen assets.
But both sides will struggle to keep the pact whole. First, trust has been shattered. After Trump walked away, Tehran’s hardliners are wary. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls swathes of the economy, is deeply invested in sanctions evasion networks. They are not eager for a return to a less lucrative status quo. Moreover, the deal is a civilian agreement, not a treaty. It can be unpicked by a future president with a stroke of a pen. American negotiators have offered vague promises about “no maximum pressure” again, but that is not a binding guarantee.
On the American side, domestic politics is a minefield. The Israeli government has lobbied fiercely against the deal, calling it an appeasement. Minority Republicans in the Senate are already trying to force new sanctions that would violate the terms. President Biden has no congressional majority for the accord. He is using executive orders to waive sanctions, which is a fragile house of cards. Any fresh Iranian provocation, say a ship seizure in the Gulf, could shatter the consensus.
And then there is the economic price. For the UK, lower oil prices would be a welcome relief for drivers and households still reeling from the cost of living crisis. But cheaper oil also means lower revenue for the Treasury from North Sea taxes. And a flood of Iranian crude could undercut the profits of British oil majors, potentially hitting pension funds with heavy exposure. The balance is tricky.
For the union movement here, there is another angle: the Tehran regime’s record on workers’ rights is abysmal. Free trade unions are banned, strikes are crushed. Some British labour groups are uneasy about doing business with a state that jails trade unionists. Yet, isolation has not improved conditions in Iran. If the deal opens the door to more contact and pressure from international labour bodies, that could be a positive.
The bottom line: this is not a peace treaty. It is a pause. A moment for both sides to breathe. The Americans get a brake on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Iranians get economic relief. But the mechanisms to ensure compliance are weak. The “snapback” of sanctions in case of violations is a nuclear option that no one wants to use. And without trust, every future step will be taken with suspicion.
For the people of Britain, this deal is a welcome chill in hot relations. It may keep the petrol prices from spiking, and keep the world a little less dangerous. But like all such compacts, it is only as strong as the political will that holds it together. And on both sides of the pond, that will is being tested every day.
