The Pope is going to the Canary Islands. And Number 10 is scrambling. Leo's visit, announced this morning, puts the migrant crisis front and centre. Labour's response? A pledge of naval support for rescue operations. Sounds noble. But the game is deeper.
The Canary route is a political minefield. More migrants died there this year than in the Mediterranean. The Italian government is already grumbling about ‘pull factors’. Expect Tory backbenchers to pounce. They smell blood. 'Open borders by stealth' is the refrain you'll hear from the 1922 Committee.
Downing Street's calculation is clear. Starmer needs to look humane. But he also needs to look tough. The polling on immigration is brutal for Labour. Focus groups show swing voters in the 'Red Wall' are uneasy. Hence the naval support. It's a signal: we are controlling our borders. The Royal Navy will not be landing people in Dover. They will be patrolling, assisting, and ideally, turning boats back.
But here is the rub. The Pope is a moral authority. His presence will spotlight the human cost. Starmer cannot be seen to be cold. So he offers help. The question is: how much? And for how long?
Whitehall sources say the Treasury is already nervous. Naval deployments are expensive. And this is an open-ended commitment. The Home Office is even more nervous. They fear a surge in arrivals if the Canary route becomes safer. Leaks suggest a fierce internal battle. The 'doves' want a full-scale humanitarian mission. The 'hawks' want a deal with Madrid to close the route entirely.
The timing is interesting. Sunak is in the States, wooing Trump allies. He has already briefed friendly journalists that Starmer is 'weak'. Expect the Tory attack lines to harden tomorrow. 'Starmer follows the Pope, not the people.'
Meanwhile in the diocese, the Archbishop of Canterbury is said to be 'furious'. He wasn't consulted. Lambeth Palace feels sidelined. The Pope's visit is a direct challenge to the Church of England's authority on migration. Ecclesiastical politics, messy as ever.
The real story is the fragility of Starmer's position. He needs a win. The Rwanda plan is dead. The small boats numbers are up. The EU returns deal is stalled. The Canaries offer a chance to reset the narrative. But it could just as easily backfire. One image of a naval vessel turning away a crowded raft and the 'humanity' card is shredded.
Watch the backbenches. The Socialist Campaign Group is restless. They want a more radical stance. A letter is being drafted. Meanwhile, the centrists are warning about 'electoral suicide'. Starmer is squeezed.
My source in the Lobby says the PM's mood is 'focused but fretful'. He knows this could define his premiership. The Pope is not a guest to be taken lightly. He brings a spotlight. And in politics, light can burn.
For now, the naval pledge is a holding position. The real decisions are being made in the shadows. As always in this game, the public statement is just the opening move. The endgame is yet to be written.
