In a move that underscores the accelerating recalibration of global energy supply chains, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has formally pitched American oil and liquefied natural gas to Indian officials, capitalising on the deepening crisis surrounding Iranian crude exports. The offer, presented during a bilateral meeting in New Delhi, marks a strategic pivot as Washington intensifies sanctions on Tehran and seeks to secure alternative markets for its burgeoning fossil fuel output.
The timing is critical. Iran’s oil exports have plummeted by roughly 40% in the past quarter, according to satellite tracking data, as tighter US enforcement and the threat of secondary sanctions dissuade buyers. India, the world’s third largest oil importer, has historically relied on Iranian crude for its refineries, but has been forced to slash purchases amid mounting diplomatic pressure. The resulting supply gap is now being filled by American producers, who have ramped up output to near record levels of 13 million barrels per day.
Rubio’s pitch is framed around energy security and pricing stability. “The United States stands ready to be a reliable energy partner for India,” he stated at a joint press conference with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. “Our oil and gas are produced under the highest environmental standards, and we offer a supply chain free from geopolitical entanglements.” The subtext is clear: Iranian oil comes with strings attached, including the risk of US penalties and the inherent volatility of the Strait of Hormuz.
The data supports this shift. According to the US Energy Information Administration, American crude exports to India have risen 35% year-on-year, reaching 350,000 barrels per day in February 2025. LNG shipments have also climbed, with Indian spot purchases of US gas doubling since the imposition of fresh Iran sanctions in January. This is a direct consequence of what analysts call the “Iran discount” evaporating: Indian refiners once saved up to $5 per barrel on Iranian crude, but the logistical and political costs now outweigh the savings.
But there is a deeper, more uncomfortable reality. The world remains overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuels, and this deal is an exercise in rearranging the deck chairs on a warming planet. Rubio’s offer does not address the underlying crisis of climate change but rather perpetuates it. The International Energy Agency’s latest report notes that global CO2 emissions from energy rose 1.1% in 2024, driven largely by increased oil and gas consumption in Asia. India alone accounted for 15% of that increase.
From my perspective as a climate correspondent, this is a classic energy transition paradox. Rubio’s proposal is a short term fix for a long term problem. It diversifies India’s supply away from a volatile regime, but it does not diversify the global economy away from carbon. The US is now the world’s largest oil producer, and its exports are effectively displacing Iranian barrels, not replacing them with renewables. The net effect on emissions is neutral at best, possibly negative if US shale has a higher lifecycle carbon footprint than Iranian crude, which some studies suggest.
The Indian government is walking a tightrope. On one hand, it needs affordable energy to fuel its 7% GDP growth. On the other, it has committed to net zero by 2070 and is under intense international scrutiny. Jaishankar acknowledged the balancing act: “We welcome US cooperation in energy, but we are equally committed to scaling solar, wind, and green hydrogen. This is not an either/or; it is a transition.”
But the physics of the atmosphere does not recognise good intentions. Every barrel of oil burned adds CO2 that persists for centuries. The current trajectory puts the world on course for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100, well past the Paris Agreement limits. Rubio’s deal, while diplomatically savvy, is a step sideways, not forward.
In practical terms, Indian refiners are already retooling to process heavier US crude, which differs from the lighter Iranian grade. This requires capital investment and months of adjustment. Meanwhile, the Iran crisis shows no signs of abating: Tehran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would send global prices soaring and test the reliability of US supply chains.
The bottom line is this: Rubio’s pitch is a rational response to a collapsing source of oil. It secures US market share and bolsters India’s energy security. But it is also a reminder that our collective addiction to fossil fuels persists, and that geopolitics, not climate science, continues to drive the bus. As the Arctic warms and monsoons grow erratic, the world may be trading one oil tyrant for another, with the only true loser being the biosphere.
