There is a grim, almost tragicomic irony in the spectacle now unfolding between Israel and Iran. For months, the Western security establishment has fretted over Tehran’s creeping nuclear progress, its drone shipments to Russia, its encirclement of the Jewish state via proxies. And now, as Israeli jets roar overhead and sabres rattle from Jerusalem, we are meant to believe that this sudden burst of kinetic energy will strengthen Israel’s hand. Nonsense. The opposite is true. What we are witnessing is not a display of strength but a masterclass in strategic self-sabotage. Every missile launched, every shadow war unmasked, plays directly into the Islamic Republic’s script. The more Israel escalates, the stronger Iran’s position becomes at the negotiating table.
Let us consult the annals of history. Recall the 1973 Yom Kippur War, when an initial Israeli intelligence failure and subsequent counteroffensive paradoxically paved the way for Sadat’s diplomatic opening. Or consider the Iran-Iraq war, where Saddam’s aggression welded the revolutionary regime into a hardened state apparatus. In each case, military escalation hardened the adversary’s resolve and elevated its diplomatic currency. Iran today is following that same playbook with chilling precision.
Tehran’s genius lies in its patience. It does not need to defeat Israel on the battlefield; it only needs to survive. Every Israeli strike that kills a Revolutionary Guard commander or destroys a nuclear centrifuge becomes a propaganda victory. The regime can point to external aggression to justify internal repression, rally regional allies, and legitimise its nuclear ambitions as a defensive necessity. Meanwhile, the very act of escalation fractures the international coalition against Iran. European capitals, already queasy about US-led adventurism, will decry Israeli ‘disproportionality’. Russia and China will tut-tut while accelerating their own energy deals and arms sales to Tehran. The sanctions regime, already leaking like a sieve, will suffer another blow. And the Biden administration, desperate to avoid a broader war, will inevitably pull Israel back and offer Iran a sweeter deal to sit down.
Look at the facts on the ground. Iran now wields proxies from Yemen to Lebanon, all battle-hardened and equipped with precision munitions. Its nuclear programme is weeks, not years, from breakout capability. And crucially, its oil revenues are surging as global supply worries drive prices higher. Every Israeli strike that raises regional temperatures also raises the price of crude. Every assassination that prompts Iranian reprisals also prompts Western hand-wringing about ‘escalation management’. The net effect is a strengthening of Iran’s hand at every turn. While Israel plays the role of the hyperactive bully, Tehran sits back, absorbing blows and waiting for the inevitable moment when exhaustion sets in and the West comes begging for a ceasefire.
There is a deeper cultural amnesia at work here. We have forgotten that in the game of nations, the side that controls the tempo of diplomacy often wins the war. Iran understands that the negotiating table is merely an extension of the battlefield. By provoking Israel into overreaction, it ensures that its own demands — nuclear recognition, sanctions relief, regional hegemony — become conceivable concessions rather than non-starters. The fall of Rome, after all, was not precipitated by a single barbarian assault but by a series of overextended imperial reprisals that bled the treasury and sapped public will. Israel risks a similar fate if it continues to dance to Tehran’s tune.
This is, of course, an uncomfortable truth for those who prefer their geopolitics in black and white. But the evidence is mounting. The next Iranian escalation will not be met with airstrikes but with ambassadorial visits. The West will cluck its tongue, insist on ‘de-escalation’, and hand the mullahs a prize they could not win through force alone: a place at the table as a legitimate regional power. And when that happens, do not be surprised. For Israel has handed Iran its strongest negotiating card yet: the credibility of its own weakness disguised as strength.
