The Trump-Vance White House has done it again. This time, they have seized control of the Iran nuclear deal, effectively relegating the European Union to the role of a flustered Greek chorus in the tragedy of its own irrelevance. As the old world wrings its hands, the new world acts. The message is clear: the era of multilateral dithering is over.
Let us not mince words. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was a monument to European naivety. It assumed that good intentions and complex legal frameworks could tame a theocratic regime with imperial ambitions. The Obama administration, bless its academic heart, believed in the power of process. The Europeans, ever the romantics, followed suit. But history, as I have often noted, does not reward sentiment. It rewards strength.
Enter Donald Trump and his vice president, J.D. Vance. Here are men who understand that diplomacy is not a seminar at the École Normale Supérieure. It is a contest of wills, a struggle for primacy. By wresting control of the Iran negotiations from the limp hands of Brussels, the Trump-Vance team is signalling a return to a very old idea: the nation-state as the sole arbiter of its own security. This is not isolationism. This is realism. And it is about time.
Consider the parallel with the late Roman Republic. As the Senate debated procedural niceties, the proconsuls took matters into their own hands. They did not ask for permission. They acted. And in doing so, they preserved the Republic for another century. The Trump-Vance approach is analogous. By taking the lead, they are preventing the kind of feckless appeasement that allowed the Iranian regime to continue its nuclear march while Western diplomats sipped mineral water in Geneva.
But there is a darker possibility. Perhaps this is not a new Roman peace but a prelude to a new sort of chaos. The European Union, already teetering on the edge of irrelevance, may now double down on its own brand of impotent moralising. The result could be a transatlantic rift that benefits no one save our adversaries. The Iranians, masters of playing one power against another, will surely exploit this divide. The question is whether the Trump-Vance team has the strategic patience to see this through, or whether we are watching a mere tantrum dressed up as statecraft.
Let us also examine the intellectual decay at play. The European diplomatic establishment has long prided itself on its supposed sophistication. But what is sophistication without results? It is decadence. And decadence, as the historian Gibbon taught us, is the prelude to collapse. By seizing the initiative, the White House is reminding Europe that power flows from action, not from press releases. If the Europeans are wise, they will use this humiliation as a spur to reform. If they are not, they will continue their slow slide into irrelevance, a museum of good intentions.
In the end, the Trump-Vance seizure of the Iran deal is a test. It is a test of American resolve, European spine, and Iranian cunning. It is also a test of our ability to learn from history. The Fall of Rome was not a single event. It was a process of decay masked by continued pretence. The Vienna talks were the same. Now, the mask is off. Let us see what lies beneath.
For my part, I am cautiously optimistic. The Trump-Vance White House has shown a willingness to break the china. That is often the first step towards building something new. But the devil, as always, is in the details. Will they have the wisdom to know when to negotiate, and the strength to know when to walk away? Or will they mistake bluster for strategy? The next few months will tell. In the meantime, I, for one, will be watching with the cold eye of a historian who has seen this play before. The ending, I suspect, will not be to everyone's liking.
