The spectre of renewed sanctions and diplomatic isolation hangs over Havana as the incoming Trump administration signals a return to hardline policies toward Cuba. President-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to reverse the Obama-era rapprochement, has nominated key figures known for their hawkish stance on the Castro government. This shift threatens to unravel the fragile economic reforms and international engagement that characterised the past four years.
In London, the Foreign Office has adopted a measured tone. The United Kingdom, a signatory to the 1996 Helms-Burton Act's EU-blocking statute, must navigate the complex law while maintaining its own trade and diplomatic interests in the region. British exports to Cuba, though modest at £50 million annually, include pharmaceuticals, machinery and financial services. A complete US embargo would complicate these transactions, as many rely on dollar clearing systems or US banking intermediaries.
Yet the UK is not alone. The European Union has long opposed extraterritorial US sanctions, and Brussels will likely reiterate its commitment to the EU-Cuba Political Dialogue and Cooperation Agreement, signed in 2016. British diplomats in Havana report that the Cuban government views the UK as a valuable interlocutor — a bridge between Washington's confrontation and Europe's cautious engagement.
Historically, the US embargo has been a source of tension in transatlantic relations. The 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which threatened legal action against foreign companies using expropriated American properties, prompted the EU to enact blocking legislation and file a WTO complaint. The UK supported this challenge. Under Trump, the risk of Title III lawsuits — suspended by every president since Clinton — could return, deterring British investment in Cuba's tourism and energy sectors.
However, the UK also has its own interests. Cuba's healthcare system, renowned for its biotechnology, presents opportunities for UK research institutions. British universities have partnerships with Cuban scientific centres, and the UK's departure from the EU offers the chance to negotiate a bilateral trade deal with Havana. The Foreign Office has been careful not to antagonise Washington, but it has also resisted pressure to isolate Cuba entirely.
For now, the tone from Whitehall is pragmatic. A Foreign Office source, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation as "fluid" but stressed that the UK would not support policies that "harm the Cuban people" or that "undermine the UK's ability to engage constructively with a sovereign state." That phrase echoes the British position during the Obama detente.
The question is whether this balance can hold. Trump has threatened to rename the US-Cuba rapprochement a "bad deal" and impose new travel restrictions, remittance caps and trade bans. Such moves would disproportionately affect ordinary Cubans and could trigger a further exodus of migrants toward the US border. The UK, which has its own Caribbean territories and migration concerns, watches this dynamic closely.
In Havana, the Cuban government has responded with characteristic defiance. President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned what he called "new imperial aggression" but noted that Cuba "has survived under siege for over 60 years." Yet behind the rhetoric, there is anxiety. The Venezuelan crisis has cut off oil supplies and financial aid, leaving Cuba more isolated than a decade ago.
British diplomatic strategy hinges on maintaining dialogue with both Washington and Havana. UK officials will continue to hold meetings with Cuban counterparts, advocating for human rights and political freedom while avoiding the lecturing tone that often rankles Havana. At the same time, London will present itself to the Trump administration as a loyal ally that can help manage the regional fallout — arguing that a sudden economic collapse in Cuba would create far more migration and instability than a controlled transition.
The Caribbean Community has called for calm. CARICOM foreign ministers are expected to meet in February to coordinate a regional response. The UK, as an associate member of CARICOM, will have a seat at that table.
For now, the immediate test will come in the next few weeks. Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, has yet to state his position on Cuba. The UK ambassador to the UN, Dame Karen Pierce, has been tasked with sounding out the new administration's intentions.
In the best case, the UK and EU can maintain enough pressure to prevent a full re-imposition of Cold War era sanctions. In the worst, Cuba will face a new blockade, and the UK will have to choose between its transatlantic alliance and its principles of free trade.
