A US-Iran deal is imminent. Sunday, we are told. The details are still murky. But the message is clear: Donald Trump is moving. And the Foreign Office is not happy.
Sources close to the negotiations confirm a framework agreement will be announced this weekend. It caps months of backchannel talks, denials, and leaks. The President wants his legacy. Iran needs relief from sanctions. The result is a deal that bypasses the JCPOA, the 2015 agreement Trump himself tore up.
For Tehran, it means access to frozen assets. For Washington, it is a pledge to halt uranium enrichment beyond 3.67%. No inspectors from the IAEA? That is still being negotiated. But the White House is confident. “The President gets what he wants,” a senior official said.
Over here, alarm bells are ringing. The Foreign Office view: this deal is a sticking plaster. It doesn't address Iran's missile programme. It doesn't tackle their proxies in Yemen and Syria. A senior diplomat told me, “It’s a short-term fix that stores up long-term problems.”
But this is not just about the Middle East. It is about power. Trump is acting unilaterally. He is ignoring allies. He is making a statement: America first, even in diplomacy. The UK, France, and Germany were not in the room. They were briefed later. That is a deliberate snub.
Downing Street is furious. But public criticism is muted. Why? Because they need Washington on trade. They need them on NATO. Rowing with Trump over Iran is a luxury they cannot afford. So they will issue a statement. “We note the developments.” “We hope it contributes to stability.” Code for: we don't like it.
The politics are poisonous. In Westminster, the deal splits the usual coalitions. Labour is split between those who want any deal and those who mistrust Trump. The Tories are uneasy. The right wing of the party sees it as appeasement. The moderates see it as a step forward. The Prime Minister is caught in the middle.
And what of Iran? The hardliners in Tehran are watching. The deal gives the moderates a win. But it also gives the IRGC a reason to resist. They will demand more concessions. They will test the limits. The deal is fragile. It could unravel before the ink is dry.
For now, watch this space. Sunday is the date. The game is in motion. The players are jockeying. The stakes are high. And as always, the British establishment is left reacting, not leading.
The truth? The special relationship is being tested. Not by a crisis. But by a deal. Trump's deal. And the UK is on the outside, looking in.
