Donald Trump has privately signalled that a 20-year suspension of Iran’s nuclear programme would be sufficient to secure a new deal, according to sources close to the talks. The former president’s team conveyed this threshold to intermediaries in recent weeks, breaking with earlier demands for a permanent halt. It is a significant concession from a man who tore up the 2015 JCPOA, calling it “the worst deal ever.
” The shift exposes the transactional nature of Trump’s approach. He wants a win. A two-decade pause provides a fixed end-date, allowing him to claim he got a better deal than Obama, while kicking the issue down the road.
Iran’s regime is divided. Hardliners view any suspension as surrender. But the economic pain is acute.
The rial is in freefall. Protests simmer. The leadership may calculate that survival demands a temporary freeze.
European diplomats are wary. They remember Trump’s walkout in 2018. Can he be trusted?
The answer from his camp is yes, if the price is right. The price here is a 20-year pause. No dismantlement.
No inspections beyond IAEA norms. Just a time-limited halt. It is a gamble, but one the art-of-the-deal president is willing to take.
The clock is ticking. Iran’s enrichment is near weapons-grade. A deal now would freeze that progress.
But if talks stall, the crisis escalates. This is Trump’s last throw of the dice before the election. He needs a foreign policy win.
Iran needs relief. Both sides are desperate. That makes a deal possible.
And dangerous.
