A growing chorus of voices within the White House and among international allies is expressing alarm that President Donald Trump may no longer be directing the trajectory of the conflict with Iran, according to multiple senior administration officials. The warning comes after a series of events that suggest the situation is slipping beyond the control of the Oval Office, raising the spectre of an unintended and escalating confrontation with Tehran.
The trigger for this anxiety was the overnight attack on the US embassy in Baghdad, an event that has been described by officials as a potentially catastrophic miscalculation. The attack, which involved dozens of Shia militiamen and their supporters, breached the outer perimeter of the embassy compound before being repelled by US security forces. No American casualties have been reported, but the damage to diplomatic property and the psychological impact on personnel has been substantial.
Critics of the administration’s Iran policy point to a series of decisions that have accumulated into a crisis not of the president’s making. The assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, was a high-risk manoeuvre that appears to have been planned without a coherent strategy for what would follow. Officials say that even within the Pentagon and intelligence community there was surprise at the timing and scope of the operation, leading to accusations that the president was acting on instinct rather than counsel.
The White House has since struggled to articulate a unifying message. The president’s Twitter feed has vacillated between bellicose threats and calls for peace, creating confusion among allies and adversaries alike. The decision to deploy additional troops to the region, described as defensive, has been interpreted by Tehran as a preparation for further offensive action.
European diplomats have been scrambling to reduce tensions, with the French and German foreign ministers making urgent telephone calls to their Iranian counterparts. But Tehran’s response has been to demand that the United States lift all sanctions before any negotiation can begin, a condition that the Trump administration has so far refused.
One former national security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “The problem is that there is no off-ramp. The president’s advisors are divided, and the Iranians are unlikely to back down. We are in a spiral that could lead to a full-blown war, and no one seems to know how to stop it.”
The House of Representatives has scheduled a briefing for later today with the acting secretary of defence and the secretary of state, but there is a palpable sense of urgency. Lawmakers from both parties have expressed concern that the administration is drifting towards a conflict that has not been authorised by Congress and for which there is no clear exit strategy.
What is clear is that the United States is now locked in a cycle of attack and reprisal that is escalating rapidly. The question on everyone’s mind is whether President Trump can regain control of events before they overtake him entirely. The answer, based on the testimony of those who observe the situation closely, is uncertain.
