President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea, the first by a Chinese leader in 14 years, is being read by UK intelligence as a calculated move to reassert Beijing’s influence over its unpredictable neighbour. The trip, which took place amid stalled denuclearisation talks, has heightened fears that Pyongyang may be emboldened to accelerate its weapons programme.
Western analysts have long viewed China as the sole state capable of restraining Kim Jong-un’s regime. However, Xi’s decision to embrace the North Korean leader publicly, rather than press for concessions, signals a shift in strategy. According to a Whitehall source, the visit ‘underscores China’s determination to project its authority in the region, even if it risks undermining international non-proliferation norms.’
UK intelligence assessments, reviewed by this correspondent, indicate a ‘significant probability’ that North Korea will conduct further nuclear tests within the next six months. The report notes that satellite imagery suggests activity at the Punggye-ri test site, despite its official closure in 2018. ‘China’s rhetorical support may reduce the diplomatic cost for Pyongyang to resume testing,’ the assessment warns.
The timing of Xi’s visit is also geopolitically significant. It comes just weeks before the G20 summit in Osaka, where Xi is expected to face pressure from US President Donald Trump to enforce sanctions. By demonstrating solidarity with Kim, Xi may be seeking leverage in trade negotiations with Washington.
Historically, China has walked a fine line between supporting North Korea as a buffer against US influence and containing its nuclear ambitions. The current visit, however, suggests a tilt towards the former. ‘Beijing sees value in a nuclear-armed North Korea as a bargaining chip,’ said a former UK diplomat with expertise in East Asia. ‘The risk is that Kim interprets this as a green light to advance his capabilities.’
The implications for the region are grave. Japan and South Korea have already expressed alarm, with Seoul’s presidential office calling for ‘principled engagement’ with the North. UK Foreign Office officials have indicated they will raise the matter at the UN Security Council.
In a joint statement, the foreign ministers of the UK, France, and Germany urged China to use its influence to ‘bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.’ But there is little optimism in Whitehall. As one senior official put it: ‘Xi’s trip was a photo opportunity, not a step towards denuclearisation. We must prepare for a more assertive North Korea.’
The visit also raises questions about the efficacy of the global sanctions regime. If China, North Korea’s largest trading partner, is unwilling to enforce restrictions, the mechanism collapses. UK intelligence estimates that Chinese banks have already facilitated over $200m in trade with North Korea since the start of 2019, in violation of UN resolutions.
For the UK, the development is a reminder of its diminished influence in the region. Post-Brexit, London has sought to strengthen ties with Asian powers, but Xi’s Pyongyang gambit exposes the limits of British soft power. ‘We are spectators, not players, in this game,’ the intelligence source conceded.
As the nuclear risk escalates, the international community faces a stark choice: either persuade China to prioritise non-proliferation over strategic advantage, or accept a new reality in which a nuclear North Korea is a permanent fixture. Xi’s visit has made the latter outcome more likely.
