The Colombian presidential election is being violently reconfigured by the nation’s enduring civil war, a conflict that has now entered its sixth decade. As the country prepares to go to the polls, the spectre of guerrilla violence, paramilitary expansion, and state-sponsored atrocities hangs over every campaign rally and ballot box. For British firms with exposure to Colombia’s economy, the risk landscape is shifting with alarming speed.
Colombia’s war is not a monolith. It is a hydra-headed beast fed by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and a sprawling network of criminal gangs known as ‘Los Pachencas’ and the ‘Gulf Clan’. Each faction has a different agenda but shares a common reliance on drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion. The result is a brutal, tangled conflict that directly threatens the stability of the state.
The election itself has become a referendum on peace. Incumbent President Iván Duque has sought to implement the 2016 peace accord with the FARC, but the process has been plagued by violence. Over 300 social leaders and ex-combatants have been assassinated since the accord was signed. Now, candidates are being forced to take sides: those who advocate for continued negotiations are branded as soft on crime, while those who promise a military crackdown risk inflaming the very forces they seek to suppress.
For British companies, the dangers are threefold. Firstly, the immediate physical risk to personnel and assets in conflict zones is escalating. The most recent attacks by the ELN on oil pipelines in the Catatumbo region serve as a stark reminder that infrastructure remains a prime target. Secondly, the legal and reputational risk of operating in a country where corruption is endemic and human rights abuses are rampant cannot be overstated. Thirdly, the financial risk associated with supply chain disruptions and market volatility is growing as the conflict spooks foreign investors.
Take the mining sector as an example. British firms involved in gold and coal extraction are increasingly exposed to illegal mining operations funded by armed groups. The environmental damage is catastrophic, and the human cost is incalculable. In the department of Chocó, illegal mining has poisoned rivers with mercury, forcing communities to flee. These are not abstractions; they are daily realities that British companies must now navigate.
The Foreign and Commonwealth Office has updated its travel advice, but the commercial implications are less loudly broadcast. Yet the message is clear: British firms with interests in Colombia must reassess their risk exposure immediately. They must conduct enhanced due diligence on local partners, audit their supply chains for links to illegally mined minerals, and prepare contingency plans for sudden evacuations or asset seizures.
The election outcome could shift the dial dramatically. A win for a hardline candidate like Óscar Iván Zuluaga would likely escalate military operations, potentially reducing violence in the short term but alienating rural communities and driving insurgents further underground. A victory for a more moderate candidate, such as Sergio Fajardo, would signal a renewed commitment to dialogue, but peace talks are notoriously fragile and could collapse under the weight of continued atrocities.
What is certain is that the war will not end soon. The conflict’s roots are deep, entwined with land inequality, political exclusion, and the drug trade. British firms cannot afford to be naive. They must engage with the reality of Colombia, not the postcard image. That means investing in conflict-sensitive approaches, supporting local conflict resolution initiatives, and lobbying for ethical supply chains.
This is not just about doing good business. It is about ensuring that British commercial interests do not inadvertently fuel a war that has already killed over 260,000 people and displaced millions. The election may be a turning point, but the war is the true constant. British firms must adapt or risk being complicit in a tragedy of unspeakable proportions.