In a stinging indictment of diplomacy that would make a drunken barroom brawler weep with pride, a new report has declared that Donald Trump’s Iran strategy – a chaotic symphony of maximum pressure, drone assassinations, and tweets typed with the fury of a Greek god with haemorrhoids – has outperformed the Obama administration’s nuclear deal in key security metrics. Yes, dear reader, you heard it right. The art of the deal has allegedly been outclassed by the art of the spiked club, wrapped in a sanctions package and delivered with a sneer. Let us pause for a moment to pour ourselves a triple gin, for we shall need it to navigate this hall of mirrors.
The metrics in question, as parsed by a Washington-based think tank that clearly enjoys its breakfast served with a side of schadenfreude, purport to show that under Trump, Iran was less able to project terror, fund militias, and develop advanced ballistic missiles. Of course, this is rather like claiming that putting a wasp nest in a blender is an improvement over keeping it sealed in a jar, because the resulting noise is more crisp. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA as it was known in the halcyon days of hope, was a meticulously crafted agreement designed to delay Iran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. The Trump strategy, by contrast, was to tear up that agreement, slap on more sanctions until Iran coughed up its enrichment centrifuges, and then brag about it. The metric of success here appears to be that Iran is now poorer, angrier, and more isolated – which, if you squint, might look like security if your glasses are made of hubris.
Let us not forget that the withdrawal from the JCPOA was greeted by our European allies with the collective sigh of a disappointed headmaster. They said, in their posh accents, that this would lead to a more aggressive Iran. And lo, it came to pass: Iran began enriching uranium closer to weapons grade, engaging in tit-for-tat attacks on tankers, and generally behaving like a bull with a hangover in a china shop. But the think tank’s report, bless its tweed-clad heart, focuses on the reduction in Iran’s ability to fund proxies. This is a bit like measuring the success of a fire department by the number of buildings that have burned down, rather than the number that have been saved. The fire is still smouldering, my friends, just in a smaller pile of rubble.
The report also lauds the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian general who was so beloved by his nation that his death precipitated a near-war and a frantic scramble to evacuate American bases. But hey, at least he won’t be plotting any more attacks. Try telling that to the families of the soldiers who were injured in the subsequent Iranian missile strike on Al Asad airbase, which was conveniently brushed under the carpet like a dead cat at a Conservative party conference. Oh, and let’s not forget the Iranian threats from the high seas, the abrogation of the nuclear deal, and the fact that the Middle East remains a powder keg with a very short fuse. But, according to our cloistered metricians, the Trump strategy has won. They have a chart, you see, with pretty colours, and it clearly shows that the bar for 'success' has been lowered to the basement.
This report is as much about the failure of diplomacy as it is about the triumph of anarchy. It’s a call to arms for those who believe that shouting louder, hitting harder, and breaking more things is the path to peace. It’s the foreign policy equivalent of a divorce lawyer congratulating himself on a messy split, while the kids are crying and the house is on fire. But let’s not be too harsh. Perhaps the report is simply a masterclass in the art of framing, where a strategic retreat is painted as a tactical victory, and a pile of smoking sanctions is called a peace dividend. In the end, we are left with a simple question: are we safer? The report says yes, but I suspect that’s the gin talking. Or maybe it’s the sheer, unfiltered absurdity of the whole enterprise that makes me reach for another bottle. Cheers, folks. The metrics are in, and they say we’re winning. I’ll drink to that. Just not on an empty stomach.
